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Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T05:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41585/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2, SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and faintly in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely related to an M1.5 flare from Active Region 14236 (N14W12) starting around 2025-10-03T05:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-10-03T06:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171 and 195 imagery. Arrival signature at 2025-10-06T06:35Z generally characterized by slight increase in total magnetic field strength from 4 to 6 nT and stabilizing field components with time/apparent flux rope signature, as well as smoothing in density, velocity, and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T06:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T17:41Z (-9.9h, +4.6h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/10/03 05:55Z
Plane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 20Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 20Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 00:00
POS Midpoint: 15:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: +4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.74
Travel Time: ~8.74 * 9:35 = 83:46

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-10-06T17:41Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/10/03 20:00Z
Lead Time: 58.52 hour(s)
Difference: -11.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-10-03T20:04Z
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